The recent State Department human rights report on Eritrea doesn’t begin to express the extent of human rights violations in Eritrea.  Many Eritreans and various international organizations have been writing more disturbing reports of human rights abuse in Eritrea than the State Department report.

Why would PFDJ find it especially annoying that the State Department has written a report that is milder than other reports?

§         For PIA – this is round-about way of attacking the US for its position towards the border issue,

§         For PIA henchmen – they must mimic what their leader says, lest they are deprived of their livelihood, or worse end up in PFDJ dungeons.

§         For PIA fan club members – whatever their leader says, the sun revolves around the earth or the world is flat, they will repeat it to us.  None, without exception, can bring forth any convincing arguments.

American foreign policy leaves much to be desired.  But PFDJ has had its own questionable foreign policy.  Barely having celebrated our independence, PFDJ was actively engaged in the Great Lakes Region, Ethiopia, Sudan and who knows other neighbors pursuing unknown or ill-defined “foreign” policy.  What kind of activities PFDJ may have carried out against those people may be figured out by what PFDJ is doing to its own people.

Proper human rights comparison would be to observe Americans’ rights to life, liberty, and property against Eritreans’ rights to life, liberty, and property in their own respective countries.  Under PFDJ, Eritrea has achieved infamy in utter lawlessness – never heard of even in our own proud history.  PIA is above the law.  In America, American presidents must heed public opinions, experience public, media and Congress’ scrutiny, while being made fun of by evening talk shows and comedy skits.  

Even if we observe members of PIA fan club, none of them have moved back to live in PFDJ’s Eritrea.  Their superficial unwavering support for PFDJ is in knowing that PFDJ won’t be able to barge into their house in wee hours of the night.  As long as it is other Eritreans who are lining up for bread, thrown into PFDJ dungeons without due process of law, kids thrown to Wia/Sawa wolves, and suffering in their daily lives, members of the PIA club members continue to support the government.

Dictator’s Curse

In today’s world of one superpower, dictators are told by the American government what to do.  On the other hand, the American government is forced to at least maintain the appearance of negotiating with democratic governments. 

Ghadaffi’s Libya:  The proof as to whether Ghadaffi was involved in bringing down the PAN AM flight has not been fully divulged to the public yet.  But one of the main purposes of  accusing Ghadaffi for this horrendous crime was to put pressure on the Ghadaffi regime to cease his assistance to various political and militant movements.  Despite earning millions of dollars exporting oil over the years since the PAN AM tragedy, Ghadaffi’s financial muscle couldn’t save him, and finally had to succumb to American pressure and pay $3 Billion dollars (as well as French claims).  After 20 years of America bashing while millions of dollars was being earned – Ghadaffi understood the futility of his confrontational approach.  The American government could only have been able to put pressure on Libya to such extent because Ghadaffi’s Libya is a one-man government.  PFDJ’s Eritrea is in an even weaker position due to lack of hard currency reserve.

Other regimes that are told what to do, some more than the others, include Musharef’s Pakistan, Uganda’s Museveni and Zimbabwe’s Mugabe.  For instance, although President Mugabe may appear defiant against the West, the socio-economic decay in Zimbabwe will surface quickly because Mugabe doesn’t have the economic stamina of Ghadaffi.  What does PIA bring to the table that will enable him to play hardball with the American government? 

Turkey:  In the days leading to the Iraqi invasion, America needed the permission of the Turkish government to open a second front [in the North] against Sadam’s army.  The Turkish government flipped-flopped over this decision thus delaying American military operation.  The American government couldn’t pressure any one person in the Turkish government because Turkey is a relatively stable democratic nation.  Eventually, the Turkish government turned down the American request.  Turkey is a NATO nation, and although the invasion of Iraq wasn’t a NATO operation, it shows the significant military ties between the US and Turkey.  Yet, Turkey refused.  If Turkey was government of one-man or dictator, he would have only received one phone call and told what to do.

The strength of a nation is NOT determined by its size, but by its internal cohesiveness.  Eritrea as a country of rule-of-law and a country where human rights are respected could have stood up not only against America, but against the whole world.  We have proven it during our struggle for independence!  It is not lost to the American government or any other government that PFDJ’s Eritrea is a living hell for ordinary Eritreans.  It is now a house divided!  Our enemies know that by abusing its own people, PFDJ’s Eritrea is standing on quicksand.

Race Against Time (Part II) – PFDJ is hemorrhaging

PIA has come to the conclusion that America won’t pressure the Ethiopian government to finalize the border.  It doesn’t take much to figure out that America is putting pressure on PIA by PIA’s decision to expel USAID out of Eritrea barely few weeks after the US government announced its commitment to increase the badly needed food aid to Eritrea to a total of 350,000 Metric Ton in 2005.

As a result, Eritrea may have started the year 2006 with food supply deficiency and thus heavily affecting PIA’s ability to maneuver.  There are a number of possible observations,

§         2005 food production may not be as high as PFDJ claims due to the following reasons,

o        During the peak farming season, the PFDJ engaged in campaign of imprisoning village people over missing National Servicemen, thus without a doubt reducing food production for the 2005 year,

o        The promising rainy season was followed by excess rain in late season that destroyed much of the crops in some parts of Eritrea.

§         Eritrea’s food needs for this year is estimated at 540,000 MT.  PFDJ couldn’t have produced more than 1/3 to ½ of the total domestic food needs.  The remaining food requirement of 324,000 MT must either be purchased or received through international donations.  The total value of deficiency in food production is $ 162 Million USD, which the PFDJ must now finance out of its own pocket.  This is in addition to increased hard currency requirement amounting to $ 44 Million USD to import fuel due to sharp increase in fuel prices (total yearly requirement, $ 132 Million USD, up from $ 88 Million USD only few months ago).  In other words, PFDJ must raise immediately additional $200 Million USD a year simply to pay for food and pay rising cost of fuel.

§         In addition, Eritrea is still heavily purchasing armaments, which will require unspecified amount of additional USD$.

§         Total Eritrean export is estimated to be less than $ 50 Million USD, while total import is in excess of $ 600 Million USD, which may sharply increase by over $ 200 Million to purchase food, which otherwise would have been donated to Eritrea.   The Eritrean government will attempt to starve the Eritrean people and restrict fuel usage to reduce hard currency requirement.

§         Even PFDJ’s hurried sale of land for building houses, won’t be able to cover its hard currency requirement.  According to one estimate, net contribution [i.e. after purchasing building material, net amount available to buy other imports such as food] of this project will be in the range of $ 100 – 150 Million USD this year.  Not enough to cover additional food and fuel requirements.

PFDJ is hemorrhaging!

In order to keep the West, and esp. Americans, guessing on its 2005/2006 food production, the PFDJ regime has,

• Banned UNMEE flights (i.e. the secondary motivation for the continued ban)
• Expelled Western citizens working for UNMEE in Eritrea out of fear that they may report food situation in Eritrea to their respective governments,
• Refused various UN agencies from assessing food requirements for Eritrea for 2006 and beyond,
• Continues to expel NGOs to restrict any reports on food situation in Eritrea.

But this might be a futile attempt, as the Americans may already have satellite images of the crop situation in Eritrea. 

PIA is fully aware that he won’t be able to feed Eritreans in 2006.  At the same time, PIA knows that to beg food from the US and other donors will mean delay in demarcating the border.  PIA finds himself in dilemma.  PIA’s choice is clear – to starve his own people for a long-shot possibility of demarcating the border through confrontational approach to dealing with the US. 

It is a gambler’s game – someone who has lost all his money, and hopes that by putting up his whole house that he may return all that he has lost.  The gambler doesn’t have any ace in the hole, and his adversaries know it. 

The next few months will be very critical,

• There might be massive starvation in Eritrea – something unheard of in Eritrean history (even when Ethiopia suffered 1973 & 1984 famines, Eritrea had largely escaped unscathed),

• There might be massive movements of Eritreans during this period in search of food,

• Increased ‘sweeps/giffa’ to counter any possibility of uprising against the government due to severe situations,

• PIA may order high profile arrests of “opportunist” military officers in anticipation of possible coup against him and/or to sacrifice some of his military men to allow the public to vent some of its frustrations

In the end, none of all these desperate measures will save PIA because PIA doesn’t have the means to address the core issues.

Explosions in Addis Ababa

This is a disturbing development.  Eritreans should condemn any such actions because what happens in the neighborhood may sooner or later end up in our doorstep. 

The latest bombings in a major city raises a number of questions,

• If OLF is responsible as suspected, its latest modus operandi is significantly different than its modus operandi during the Dergue regime,
• Somalia’s Al-Ithihad has never used such methods in its fight against the Ethiopian regime for the last ten years,
• Even suspected Sudanese “fifth-column” have never resorted to such methods for the past 12-years [i.e. against Eritrea except possible one or two suspected acts in Barentu],

The question is, what factors have changed that have given rise to this type of dangerous repetitive acts in the last month never experienced in this neighborhood before?  This is anybody’s guess, but for anyone who can think beyond his nose, this is an ominous sign.

EDA’s Public Relations

There is a big difference between bashing EDA and criticizing EDA.  The bashers may be categorized as follows,

§         (Aspiring) politicians – their bashing of EDA is only their way of forcefully requesting to join EDA.

§         Other bashers –their EDA bashing is based more on fear-mongering of religious/ethnic internal warfare than raising the key issues and then debating them.  The simple question to bashers is, what is the objective?   What are our priorities? Who are the king-makers in Eritrea?  Are we making a mountain out of a molehill?  In their zealous attack on few old guards, what is the impact of their bashing on the far more numerous young Eritreans?  What solutions do bashers present – something realistic than based on wishful thinking or iron-fist thinking?   

Bashing EDA at this time doesn’t serve any purpose other than to weaken the opposition camp.  At the same time, EDA members should not criticize EDA-bashers for exercising their right to free speech – although, again, their bashing is counterproductive.  First and foremost, bashing EDA has exactly the opposite effect.  Their EDA bashing gives EDA more political weight than it actually has, while weakening the opposition camp over issues that can only be addressed in post-PFDJ Eritrea. 

However, at the end of the day, EDA bears as much responsibility for failing to engage in positive public relations to counter EDA-bashers.  What EDA fails to do today is what it will fail to do tomorrow.  It is always easier to keep people on the right track through positive public relations than to allow them to get derailed and then hope to put them back on track again.  It is always easier to address issues at early stage than when they go out of control. 

EDA must either be able to defend its Charter aggressively, or amend it, or allow the alliance to collapse.  It can’t remain in state of comatose, which is no good to us today, nor tomorrow.  Ineffective leaders in state of paralysis can’t lead a nation.  EDA is only reaching out to its old base, and must pursue creative means to broaden it.  Strong vision and the ability to articulate that vision is needed.

For sake of debate, I will raise a couple of issues,

• The principle of ‘inclusiveness’ and ‘engagement’ with any Eritreans with opposing views must never be compromised.  As long as opposing groups are willing to do the same and engage in the same spirit, their views should not be used to exclude them.  Otherwise, we will create another dictatorship.  There is no such thing as advocating for democracy, rights and freedoms – and then to put perimeters around it without debates and based on few people’s own personal ‘reasoning’.   The fact that 16 political groups are willing to sit with each other is a starting point – consistent with the principle of ‘engagement’.

• EDA isn’t necessarily judged by its inability to address/settle burning national issues, which can only be settled through the full participation of the general Eritrean public.  Its immediate challenge remains that it lacks strong leadership with articulate vision – not a dictatorship but a leadership that is able to stitch together different views into one cohesive platform, address lack of transparency, address inability to resolve burning internal issues through dispute resolution mechanisms, formulate code-of-conduct [including guidelines on how aspiring politicians must strive to behave], and other immediately achievable goals.  These are the confidence-builders.

• In our debates, we can’t just say that the only way to ensure the survival of Eritrea is by eliminating religion out of our lives.  If certain segments of the Eritrean population want to be administered under Sharia Law, the question shouldn’t be narrowly defined to mean that this segment of the population want their beliefs imposed on all other Eritreans.  The debate should be first framed to ask how a secular state can accommodate different laws to address the concerns and/or wishes of any significant segment of the population.

• Those, of both extreme end, who try to create homogeneous societies through their forceful [iron-fist]views will plummet the whole country into the abyss of dictatorship sooner or later.  In fact, those who harp on the dangers of religious war are the ones indirectly inflaming intolerance by narrowing down a complex issue into simplistic arguments.  Let us not have any illusions that as dictatorship has its price, ‘tolerance’ will have its price.   

Some may argue that our people aren’t educated enough nor savvy enough to discuss these types of issues.  Yet, Moslem Eritreans and Christian Eritreans, and various ethnic groups, have managed to live together in harmony for centuries.  In fact, the friction among religious/ethnic groups is taking place among the educated and/or world-traveled Eritreans in Diaspora – those who live in multi-ethnic immigrant societies and yet have not learned a damn thing about tolerance.  Much of our debates in Diaspora are based on our imagination, or our experiences in Frankfurt or Bay Area, or the political intrigues that took place among the liberation movements at the top echelon some three decades ago.  In today’s Eritrea, the reality is that various ethnic and religious groups in Hamelmalo, Massawa, Asmara, Barentu, Gulij, Adi Quala, Irafale, Asseb and Dekemhare co-exist peacefully – thank you.   The rank-and-file tegadelties of all religions and ethnic groups, and minimally educated at best, loved and sacrificed for each other.  Let us not lose sight of reality!  We shouldn’t allow ourselves to dance to a ‘divisive’ tune set by PFDJ.

Let us not scratch problems that don’t exist!  Unlike bashing, criticism is healthy because it raises specific issues and attempts to debate them.  We will be happy if EDA succeeds because we can only benefit from success.  Even if EDA fails and we are able to learn from it, that is still a success to certain extent.  But bashing never helps us to learn.    

For now, the opposition camp shouldn’t lose sight of its main purpose, which is to get rid of a repressive and destructive regime.  Everyday that PFDJ remains in power, is everyday our country sinks further into an abyss.  Although we shouldn’t cease from criticizing the opposition camp on their failures, these criticisms should be directed on issues that EDA can and should address within its current organizational capacity.  National issues can only be addressed in post-PFDJ Eritrea – with our four million people participating in it.  Let us not put the horse before the cart. 

As for me, if EDP (as my chosen opposition party with the most prudent political platform) says that the best way the opposition camp can contribute towards bringing down the regime is through EDA, then I will continue to throw my full support behind EDA - period.  Let PFDJ know that they can’t throw us off track by raising side-issues and cluttering the opposition camp through their underhanded game of scratching old wound.  We should remain focused, period!  That is the only way to assure victory – just like our independence.  Naturally, this type of blind support has its consequences.  But having identified many challenges and issues, we can only deal with them one-at-a-time on priority basis.  Forget trying to hit two birds with one stone – hardly works!

Each article that is written in the internet and each banner politics tells us where our priorities lie during this struggle to remove the repressive regime.  It is easy to tell which ones are getting side-tracked.

Kem Wetru Awet N’Hafash! 

Berhan Hagos

March 28, 2006