The latest row between the Eritrean government and the United Nations is yet another illustration of Eritrean government’s tendency to seek confrontation as a sole means of resolving challenges.
PIA’s order to expel certain members of UNMEE is the diplomatic blunder equivalent of the 1998 PIA decision to use force in reply to Woyane’s provocation. These are rash ‘ten minute’ decisions of an unaccountable leader bent on compounding mistakes.
Although Eritrea may not be entirely at fault for every confrontation it has engaged in with its neighbors and others in the past ten years, PIA has chosen to resort to deadly habits to resolve these challenges.
- In 1995, Yemen began intentionally settling its citizens on Eritrean islands. During the numerous meetings between the two governments, Yemen took condescending attitudes towards Eritrean concerns. PIA initiated military action thus choosing to escalate the confrontation. Fortunately, both parties agreed to international arbitration. There is a nagging question whether the Eritrean government pursued wide consultations with various experts [legal, diplomatic, economic, social, psychologists, etc…] before rushing into military confrontation? Eritreans didn’t aggressively question the Eritrean government’s actions because the issue was settled quickly, and second, we made the excuse for the government that it was still on the learning curve of governing.
- In 1998, the conflict with Ethiopia broke out after the Ethiopian government killed 7 Eritrean military officers in disputed [but Eritrean] territory. In less than a week – ‘in a ten minute decision’, PIA took unilateral action without any wide consultation. PIA failed to pursue wide consultation to ascertain the domestic and international ramifications – economically, socially, diplomatically, and politically. Because of this failure, Eritrea was condemned as the guilty one or as the aggressor for starting the conflict with Ethiopia. PIA had to retreat into his shell making all kinds of promises that Eritrea won’t fire the first shot or that it would not cross into Ethiopian territory during heated battles, in order to win back the international community. Because of PIA’s failure to pursue wide consultation before launching a ‘limited’ show of force in Badme, Eritrea was handcuffed in the conflict with Ethiopia resulting in Ethiopia overrunning a significant portion of its territory. During the two year conflict with Ethiopia, PIA made many ‘ten minute’ decisions that eventually put Eritrea at a disadvantage. Gen. Ephrem lamented on this political handcuff on EriTV. Did we learn our lesson? Absolutely not, because it is deadly habits that prevents one from learning from past mistakes.
- The latest row with the UN is yet another example of hurried (or ‘ten minute’) decision that failed to pursue wide consultation before engaging in such dangerous and desperate politics. BEFORE EXPELLING certain members of UNMEE, PIA should have sought consultation with experts. But again, PIA probably considers himself the ultimate wisdom on legal (including international), medical, agricultural, engineering, and every other possible discipline known to man, that he may have figured that consultation is waste of time. With one quick miscalculation, or political misjudgment, PIA has tightened the noose around him to a point of suffocating himself. Deadly habits!
Accept Border Demarcation Will take time!
For clarity, the UN and the guarantors have failed Eritrea by not resolving the border issue. But this shouldn’t come as a surprise to Eritreans. In fact, when Min. Haile Drue spoke in August 2000, he understood that the border demarcation process would be dragged out but that we should concentrate on running a nation as UNMEE would be deployed in the disputed area. The coward PFDJ Central Committee and rubber stamping National Assembly, passed resolutions fixing the time for election for end of 2001 although the border decision was not completed because everybody knew that a country can’t be paralyzed over the border issue. The G-15, journalists, and many other brave Eritreans understood that the border demarcation process would take time and that a nation can’t live in state-of-suspended-animation during this period.
NO SURPRISE HERE! Many Eritreans understood that the guarantors and the UN would drag their feet in finalizing the demarcation process. No one ever expected Ethiopia would willing concede disputed territories to Eritrea, especially, when [PIA] regime’s survival is staked on its finalization.
There is no question that Eritrea is being governed by lame duck President, who has run out of political maneuvering room. He has resorted to every brutal act to quell domestic reform movement. He has played out every international political card for a losing cause. His latest interview may as well have been his farewell speech.
PIA’s desperate political situation requires him to go-for-broke.
The UN resolution 1640/2005 puts Eritrea on unequal footing with Ethiopia, which has refused to implement the border decision handed down in April 2002. UN Security Council resolutions are hardly passed without first consulting the concerned nations. UNSC resolution is used as last resort when the resolution concerns future actions [such as threat of future sanction], as opposed to condemning past actions. PIA and his higdefawiyan accomplices close to the UN, ignored all warnings given to them on pending resolutions and thus precipitating a tragic confrontation for the nation and the people of Eritrea against an international body – and by implication picking a fight with powerful countries. The Eritrean government’s surprise at this resolution [1640/2005] is pretentious. The Eritrean government must have known about this resolution in advance, probably not the exact wording of the resolution but at least the thrust of the resolution was known to PIA.
But why would PIA risk such dangerous confrontation?
It is now obvious that PIA had staked his political future on the outcome of the Ethiopian elections. When that gamble failed, PIA feels that the border demarcation will not be finalized for years to come. PIA can’t antagonize the US without severe repercussion, and instead PIA has chosen to antagonize the UN. But unfortunately, the UN doesn’t have the capacity to enforce international legal decisions. But again, at a time when there is one superpower, lashing out at the UN is a proxy fight with the world’s sole superpower – which is a suicidal wish. Those who live in the bosom of the superpower may cheer on PIA while they are living comfortable life, but the Eritrean people in Eritrea and in refugee camps in neighboring countries are the ones paying the price for this folly.
The main purpose of escalating the confrontation with the UN is primarily aimed at gaining some sympathy with Eritreans. The UN and the world is against us! We must circle the wagon at a time of external threat. But unfortunately, this won’t work. PIA can’t buy any more time with this tired politics.
Under Resolution 1640/2005, what kind of sanction could be imposed on Eritrea if it fails to abide by the resolution? UNSC can impose economic, diplomatic, and/or military sanctions.
1. The UN will not impose economic sanctions because the nature of Eritrean ‘violation’ isn’t severe enough to impose economic sanctions. It would be like giving death sentence for shoplifting.
2. If economic sanction is imposed, the UNSC will no longer have any bargaining chip in negotiating with the regime. Unless violations are severe, which it isn’t in this case, sanctions will be imposed in phases.
3. Eritrea doesn’t have any meaningful export. Economic sanction against Eritrea will only adversely affect the suffering people of Eritrea.
4. Similarly, the UN doesn’t have much leverage in applying diplomatic sanction because PIA is already banned from traveling to most, if not all, Western countries.
5. The only sanction that may be imposed is military sanction. But this isn’t effective at all either. During the height of the conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea, the UN had imposed arms embargo on both countries but there were many arms dealers willing to sell under the table that the embargo was largely symbolic.
If the sanction is to be imposed, it will be on the sale of specific types of armaments, and won’t even be a blanket embargo on all forms of armaments. But symbolically, the sanction will serve to warn both countries that the UNSC considers the tense border situation serious enough that escalating it to a conflict will entail severe consequences.
Imposing even a symbolic sanction against Eritrean will put yet another nail in the regime’s coffin. But PIA had a choice to avoid this confrontation, but chose to pursue high stakes gamble because he knows that there are no other scenarios that will save him. It is a gambler’s mentality that must bet bigger and bigger amounts in the hope of recovering all his past losses, but in the end tragically loses his house and all his other worldly possessions. The outcome is predictable.
In 1998, when PIA ordered his military men to capture Badme and environs, PIA is said to have not expected that Woyane would react in such vigorous way. PIA thought that showing a little force would help the border negotiation move to the next level. This shows that PIA is living in his own world, believing that political factors move according to his own predictions. Wrong! War broke out and hence precipitating a tragedy.
In 2005, when PIA banned the UNMEE from flying in Eritrea and moving on land at certain times, PIA may have figured that political factors would move according to his calculations or predictions. They didn’t! Instead, PIA has put himself in quagmire that he is unable to retreat without losing all his credibility … and his grip on power.
In both cases, he is victim of his own deadly habits - typical of unaccountable leaders.
Dangerous Precedence
Instead of analyzing his latest predicament after the UNSC Resolution 1640/2005, PIA reacted by ordering the expulsion of certain nationalities belonging to UNMEE – in contravention of Article 100. That article asks all Member States “to respect the exclusively international character of the responsibilities of the Secretary-General and the staff.”
As has already been stated by the UN, it can’t accede to such order because it creates dangerous precedence. If the UN accedes to the Eritrean request, other members of the UN which have UN personnel deployed in their countries will begin to make similar requests. That would undermine the UN.
It is to be recalled that the US State Department is biting its teeth over the imprisoning of four of its local staff at the US Embassy in Eritrea. Political analysts have expressed the US State Department’s concerns that such actions [imprisonments] by the Eritrean government presents a dangerous precedence for the US missions abroad. Considering the severity of this violation, the US government has not vigorously demanded the Eritrean government to release or to bring to justice these four employees.
But with the latest PFDJ escapade, the US government and the UN must now contend with a nation flagrantly violating Article 100 of the United Nations. Without a doubt, the US, UN, and EU have just reached a point where tolerating such a regime to flagrantly ignore international norms entails dangerous precedence – and thus finally aligning themselves with the people of Eritrea. Ethiopia is the one violating international laws. But Eritrea must learn to play the rules-of-the-game to advance its long term interest. Even if Eritrea is to challenge the world community over legitimate Eritrean concerns, it must know which buttons to press, or which laws, rules, and resolutions it can circumvent and stretch, while avoiding certain acts or orders which result in overstepping into legal complications that will result in serious repercussions. Only people like Min. Haile Drue play that necessary game for Eritrea’s long-term interest.
Regime’s expiration is very near
The end of this brutal regime is near. There is no realistic scenario that will save it. PIA gambled his political fortune on the outcome of the border demarcation. His tired philosophy that ‘one thousand mistakes can be redressed with one final victory’ has failed to materialize. He has used up every brutal method he can muster to silence any opposition – or rather silence the voices of common sense and reason. The people of Eritrea removed the crown from their leader’s head long time ago. The end is near. When it fought the Ethiopians, the Eritrean people and the guarantors saved it from annihilation. In picking a fight with its own people and the world, PIA has no one to save him.
The New and Prosperous Eritrea will be built by younger generation of Eritreans on the ashes of our tragedy.
On other issues
A couple of days ago, an interview with an Eritrean journalist was posted on a couple of the Eritrean websites. Talk about ‘much ado about nothing’!
Note this isn’t direct translation and is paraphrased to highlight the various messages. In today’s Eritrea, no one can speak their minds or express dissent without quickly landing oneself in PFDJ dungeons. All interviews of ordinary Eritreans have elements of coercion in them. The interviewee didn’t have any other choice but to reply as he did.
· How was your experience with private media in Eritrea?
o … when we didn’t publish enough articles pertaining to changing realities in Eritrea, many perceived us as ‘PFDJ’ agents. In addition, because other newspapers were getting popular with the public, we chose to cater to public’s wish. [ one could probably interpret this to mean that the reformers were open with us, while PFDJ refused to feed us information.]
· Were you arrested for trying to flee to Sudan, and not because of you were a journalist?
o … that is right … [what about the dozens of other journalists?]
· Was Dawit Isaac arrested for receiving external assistance from Sweden?
o … I know nothing about this…
· Don’t you feel added responsibility because you went to Revolutionary School? How could you work against this country when your comrades and elders when they sacrificed themselves for this country?
o … I didn’t do anything bad against my country. In fact, I believe I did good for this country.
· Don’t you know that receiving external assistance is against the Press law?
o … That is why we didn’t take the money.
We are then told that this journalist fled the country, the second time successfully, and is now living in Sweden. It should not escape anyone of us that this journalist spoke to the interviewer out of fear rather than out of conviction. And still, the interviewee told us that the government has no case against him or his colleagues. The interview raises more questions than it answers. These types of exposés indicate more the mind-set of those who conduct the interviews and those who publish it than the interviewee himself.
“Sesinu”
EMDHR, Ms. Elsa Chyrum, and many of the other Eritrean civic societies are doing an excellent job. The future of Eritrea is safe in their hands.
http://emdhr.civiblog.org/blog/_archives/2005/12/9/1442910.html
For Higdefawiyans who are planning to settle in the West
09 December 2005
Justice Department Bars Human Rights Violators from United States
State Department official calls visa process critical tool for keeping abusers out
Remembering Aster Yohannes and all other mothers, sisters, and innocent people in PFDJ’s cruel Dungeon,
It is darkest before dawn,
True Freedom is fast approaching,
We shall overcome!
For those of lucky enough,
Best Wishes over the holidays!
Kem Wetru Awet N’Hafash!
Berhan Hagos
December 10, 2005
